Succession Race

South African public servants have, in the pass month, embroiled the whole country in the necessary inconveniences of national public strikes, demanding a 12% pay increase. More is promised to come if the government does not heed their compromise demand of 10%. The last I heard the government was adamant on what it called its last offer of 7,5%.

Nothing in my mind has exposed the government of the African National Congress to popular condemnation as it’s handling of the present strike. Last Wednesday, on the streets of Cape Town, I was caught up in the striker’s rally march and enthusiastic fury. I marvelled at the supplicating eloquence of their protest songs, like:

Samthatha uFraser; sambek’ egrevini We took Fraser[1], and put her on the avy
Wafik’ egrevini watheth’ ububhanxa When she arrived on the gravy she spoke shit
Yini! Yini! Kanganka. Why! Why! For our lives so much.

The general mood of the strikers was captured by a lady, who was obviously the lead singer, in her statement: “Our government is becoming too big for its shoes.”

What I liked most about the ambience of the strikers was the manner by which it demonstrated the gradual shift taking place in our country; from socio-political to socio-economic aspects of integration. But I’m not now talking about that now.

During the last campaign in our national elections, when president Mbeki showed camaraderie with ordinary people, I commended his astuteness in sensing that his natural rigidity and disconnectedness were going to lead him into trouble. Looks like he since reverted to his old aloof habits.

Mbeki’s overmanned administrative apparatus is starting to show in his management team who, especially under pressure, betrays acquired bad habits from their master’s style of leadership. For instance, they feel exigent need to dispel criticism without acknowledging that sometimes it might be indicative of real fault. They see in present strike, public unions tactics of easy demagoguery to demonstrate their power than real demand for a living wage. This Mbeki temperament will undoubtedly cause the ANC to self-destruct if not checked soon.

Arrogance is ill suited for public servants, and always a sign that they’ve passed their due by date. If the ANC wants to maintain its stronghold on power in the next elections it must placate the angst of the people by making Mbeki and his management team sacrificial lambs. It has to show serious signs of moving away from Mbeki induced style of leadership and temperament of thinking he alone stands at the Archimedean point of African solutions.

Nothing portrays the folly of pragmatic politics as the progressive loss of reverence in modern leaders (Tony Blair & Thabo Mbeki) around the end of their tenures. It proves the obvious point that the glow from the candle of expedience burns contingently from both sides with no conviction to stand on. On the other hand, the likes of Russian Valdimir Putin are modern example for the argument that (any) convictions are still the best way to inspire unfaltering support.

We are told, ad nauseam sometimes, that the reason for some leader’s reluctance to relinquish power is as result of concern for what is termed their “legacy”. Maybe they should take a leaf from Tolstoy’s maxim in War and Peace: “It is only unself-conscious activity that bears fruit, and the man who plays a part in a historical drama never understands its true significance.”

No one can deny the fact that economic stability of South Africa owes much to the discipline of Mbeki and his management team. Economic growth improved the social trends of few middle-class beneficiaries, especially black political careerist boot-lickers, resulting in growing levels of social inequity; living the majority out in the lurch.

It seems impossible now that Mbeki, no matter how deft he may be on behind the scenes politics, will be re-elected as the leader of the ANC, thus become a behind the scenes head of government. I dare say he would not even be able to anoint, or influence his successor, if he has any such designs. Whatever will happen in the country’s governmental structure after his present tenure, it seems certain that it’ll happen without him. It’s time he resigned himself to that reality and move on. Failure to do so will just be setting himself up for the political dogs within the TA (Tripartite Alliance) to lap his blood in the coming ANC National Conference.

The excited debates about possible candidates to Mbeki has fostered a contest of personalities, rather than of competitive political projects and reasoned debate. Anybody who wants to enter the South African presidential race, besides being members of the ANC, will have to find their niche between the present obvious presidential contester’s personalities of businessman, Tokyo Sexwale, and the semi-disgraced deputy president of the ANC, Jacob Zuma, alias JZ.

Tokyo’s disregard for party shibboleths by staging his availability for presidency first on foreign media (BBC) might appeal to liberal sentiment, but it was a fatal error, and demonstrates his naivety about present African politics. He should have known better from the experiences of our neighbours, the MDM (Mass Democratic Movement) across the Limpopo. The MDM has not been able to rescue itself from the hole they dug themselves by associating themselves to an extent of becoming lackeys of occidental whims and capital in the perception of Zimbabwean vox populi.

The former convinced communist, Tokyo, has long made volte-face, and became convinced by liberal economics. As one of the richest black men in South Africa now, he’s pro-business and free-trade. He keeps talking about “creating wealth for all” without necessary declaring how—in any case you don’t have to be that technical to pass the political rhetoric. I'm sure it is safe to assume he is for deregulation of labour market, though, to keep up pretence that maximises his appeal; he does not come out in the open and say so, for fear of labour unions who wield the majority hand inside the TA.

Tokyo will probably soon be promising things like cutting bureaucracy in the government; advocate for anti-xenophobic nationalism, and all that comes with boisterous modern manifestation of global modernisation. In short, he'll make himself the darling of the entrepreneurial and the ambitious. But unfortunately, those policies and attitude do not wield the majority hand inside the TA.

JZ, despite all his troubles (He reminds me of what Ralph Ellison once said of James Baldwin, that he was trying “to inflate his personal problem to the dimension of a national problem.”), has positioned himself as a champion of economic patriotism against the menace of globalism. He’s been talking about the importance of government interventions in economic industries and coming out hostile to crass capitalism and—now that he’s a mannequin pastor also, which has filled him with new boastful confidence—modern secularism. He’ll probably soon be preaching that; “Economic growth and low inflation alone cannot prevent the disintegration of the country if social inequality is not urgently addressed. That a strong, efficient state, is the one that has power to enforce its ‘bias for the poor’, and that the measure of state strength is in how it treats its poor.” We’ve even heard him clumsily trying to capitalise on the burning issue of crime in our country.

I believe none of the above two candidates are exactly in phase with the vox populi. I’m sure there are other presidential candidates who are still buying their time, placing their wetted finger on air, to see which direction the wind is blowing. Silence of the likes of Cyril Ramaphosa—the competent negotiator and union leader whose thunder was stolen by Thabo Mbeki as a successor of Mandela—does not mean abortion of ambition. I reckon we shall be hearing more from the likes after the National Conference of the ANC. His silence so far has worked towards his advantage, as gossip and imprudence has corrupted the chances of others. As a former union leader, present businessman, and competent statesman without too much intellectual pretensions; he looks perfect for the job. He’s also modest, an endearing quality on a public leader.

One thing is certain, anyone who wants to win the coming presidential race will have to stride the divide and find the mean between Tokyo and JZ. South African politics are screaming for a leader of character with conspicuous marks of reflection and intelligence. A leader who knows how to inspire confidence through self-discipline and faithfulness to our democratic aspirations.

Welcome to the real politics of Mzantsi! Fasten your seatbelts; we are going for a ride to the distant future of our deep past.

[1] Geraldin Fraser-Mokeletsi, the minister of public service